Huatai Securities published a note analyzing the October 12 export tax rebate policy adjustment, estimating a reduction of about RMB 33 billion in 2026 and RMB 72 billion in 2027, which is roughly 5.2% of total export tax rebates and 0.6% of national tax revenue in 2026.
Huatai views the export tax rebate cut as a manageable fiscal adjustment that favors high-priority sectors like autos and equipment, with limited overall tax impact.
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